Thailand's exports are booming this year, and artificial intelligence is a big reason why. Data centres being built around the world need servers, storage drives, telecoms gear and power equipment, and a lot of that kit is made in Thailand. So why does the Bank of Thailand sound worried rather than triumphant?
The answer sits in a short box in its Monetary Policy Report for the third quarter of 2026, published on 11 November. It finds that the boom is real but narrow: a small group of mostly foreign-owned exporters, a handful of products and a heavy reliance on imported parts. The central bank's rate-setting committee went further in its minutes, released the same day, describing a K-shaped recovery in which the gains stay with a few sectors.
The boom, in numbers
| Measure (Bank of Thailand, Q3 2026 report) | Figure |
|---|---|
| Growth in AI-related exports, 2025 | 29.9% |
| Growth in AI-related exports, January to August 2026 | 54.0% |
| Growth in all exports over the same two periods | 12.8% and 18.9% |
| Share of total export growth driven by AI-related goods | About 50% to 67% |
| Share of AI-related exports from the top five products | 61% |
| Share of AI-related export growth from products Thailand already made | 76% |
| Share from new products such as power turbines and display modules | 2% |
| Exporters behind 83% of AI-related exports | About 69 firms, the top 1% |
| Of those, share that are foreign companies | More than 70% |
| Imported content in the top 1% of exporters' shipments | 68% |
| Share of AI-related exports sold to the US | 41% |
| China's share as the main source of imported inputs | 35% |
AI-related exports grew 29.9% in 2025 and then accelerated to 54.0% in the first eight months of 2026, compared with the same period a year earlier. That lifted total export growth to 12.8% and 18.9% respectively, and the central bank estimates AI-related goods accounted for roughly half to two-thirds of all export growth.
Few products, few companies
The main goods are communications and telecoms equipment, hard disk and solid-state drives, servers, power generators, integrated circuits and computers. The top five products made up 61% of AI-related exports in the first eight months of 2026. Most of the growth, 76%, came from products Thailand was already exporting. Genuinely new lines, such as power turbines and display modules, contributed only 2%.
The concentration among exporters is sharper still. The top 1% of AI-related exporters, about 69 firms, shipped 83% of the total, and more than 70% of them are foreign companies. The report says that limits how far the benefits spread to smaller exporters and Thai-owned businesses.
Why the money doesn't stay
Thailand mostly sits in the middle and downstream stages of the AI supply chain, and its biggest exporters rely heavily on imported inputs. Among the top 1% of exporters, imported content reached 68% of the value of their AI-related shipments. In plain terms, a large slice of each export dollar pays for components made elsewhere.
Jobs are the other gap. The committee's minutes note that data centre investment is far less labour-intensive, and that the spillover to wages and household income has largely been confined to workers and businesses in the related manufacturing and service sectors. Meanwhile, household spending remains cautious under high debt and a high cost of living.
What the investment figures add
The same pattern shows up in investment. On 13 November the Board of Investment reported that actual investment by its promoted projects reached 260.7 billion baht in the third quarter, up 28% on a year earlier, according to the Bangkok Post. The digital sector was the largest single contributor at 64.2 billion baht, more than seven times the figure a year before, followed by electronics and electrical appliances at 61.2 billion baht. Together, the two sectors made up nearly half of the quarter's total.
The risks the central bank is watching
- Product cycles and new technology that could replace the goods Thailand makes today.
- Changes in strategy or investment plans at the small number of large exporters.
- Dependence on two countries: the US took 41% of AI-related export value, and China supplied the main imported inputs, equal to 35% of AI-related export value.
- Trade measures and industrial policies in those markets.
The bank expects exports to keep growing in 2027, but more slowly, as global spending on AI and data centres cools after this year's surge. Its overall growth forecast is modest: 2.4% for 2026 and 2.1% for 2027.
What it means if you live here
For most residents, the headline export numbers will not show up in daily life. The central bank's own reading is that growth is uneven, consumption is held back by debt, and it now wants to judge the economy by how widely the recovery spreads, not only by the national totals. If you work in electronics, data centres or the services around them, the boom is probably visible. If you run a restaurant, a guesthouse or a small shop, the minutes suggest you are on the other arm of the K.
FAQ
What does the Bank of Thailand count as an AI-related export?
Goods linked to building and running data centres, including computing hardware, networking and telecoms equipment, and electrical power equipment. The bank's grouping follows a method used by the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
How many companies drive Thailand's AI export boom?
About 69 firms, the top 1% of AI-related exporters, accounted for 83% of AI-related exports in the first eight months of 2026, and more than 70% of them are foreign companies.
Why doesn't more of the boom reach ordinary households?
The exports rely heavily on imported parts, 68% for the largest exporters, and data centre investment needs relatively few workers, so less value and fewer jobs stay in the wider economy.
What is a K-shaped recovery?
A recovery in which some sectors grow strongly while others stagnate or decline. The Bank of Thailand's committee used the term for growth concentrated in technology and AI-related industries.
Sources and verification
Factual claims and service details were checked against the sources below on . Prices, rules and availability can change; confirm consequential decisions with the relevant authority or provider.
- Monetary Policy Report Q3 2026 (Thai), Box 1: Effects of the AI cycle on Thai exports and the economyBank of Thailand
- Edited Minutes of Monetary Policy Committee Meeting (No. 5/2026)Bank of Thailand
- BoI reports 28% growth in investment in third quarterBangkok Post
- Central bank highlights uneven impact of AI boomBangkok Post